Practical writing on deterministic planning, inventory and the end of black-box AI, plus the talks, seminars and press where we share the method (the what, never the how).
Short, useful reads for planners, operations and finance leaders. New pieces are drawn from Yasser's weekly writing on LinkedIn.
SAP will resell ORO Labs' procurement orchestration on Ariba. The real lesson: value is moving to the specialist layer on top of the ERP, and the planning decision is still open.
ReadTwo years of hype gave way to a reckoning. Buyers now want decisions they can reproduce, audit and defend. Here is what replaces the black box.
ReadRerun last month's forecast on the same data. If the number moves, it is an opinion, not a plan; and nothing downstream can be trusted.
ReadCash frozen on the shelf, and sales lost when the shelf is empty, paid in the same quarter. Why overstock and stockouts are one problem, not two.
ReadMost safety stock is a round number nobody can defend. Size it on how wrong the forecast actually is, per SKU, and the policy earns its keep.
ReadThe cash trapped in your stock is the cheapest money you will raise. How to release it without hurting service.
ReadWhy the headline number lies, what wMAPE really tells you, and realistic targets per SKU.
ReadWhat S&OP is, the five-step monthly cycle, why meetings fail, and how to make the plan reproducible.
ReadWhat E&O is, why it builds up, how to spot it early with coverage ratios, and four levers to clear it.
ReadExpiry, cold chain and tenders make pharma the most unforgiving inventory there is. The economics, with data.
ReadSpoilage on one side, a lost customer on the other, and a forecast that misses by ~25%. Why food is so hard.
Read$740B of unsold stock. Why the industry over-makes, and how better planning breaks the markdown cycle.
ReadTens of thousands of slow SKUs, a fill-rate reflex, and $964B of wholesaler stock. Where the cash sleeps.
ReadThe aftermarket pays the bills and traps the cash. 10-40% of spare-parts stock is slow but mandatory.
Read$140B+ of excess to unwind. Why batch runs and volatile raw materials amplify the swing, and how to plan it.
ReadA $1.43B write-down in one quarter. Why electronics whipsaws from shortage to glut, and obsolescence compounds it.
ReadDerived demand, amplified: shipments fell 4-5%, one maker 12.7% in a quarter. How to ride your customers' swings.
ReadExcess cost the biggest beauty group a full point of gross margin. Launches, shades and expiry, explained.
Read$431.5M and $62M write-downs in 2024. Why a vast catalogue plus next-day service traps working capital.
Read97 days of inventory, 40%+ short of working capital. Project demand, seasons and commodities, planned.
ReadWhere DemandIntel and Audacity show up in the world.
A seminar on deterministic demand and inventory intelligence, delivered to supply-chain students and faculty.
Four posts a week on forecasting, inventory and the reproducibility of planning. Follow Audacity.
For interviews, commentary on supply-chain AI, or a briefing, reach us at info@audacitybusinessconsulting.com.
Picture your next S&OP meeting: one number on screen that nobody argues with. See it free, on your own data, in 45 minutes; and if it does not hold up, we part as friends.